The company will report its IFRS results of 1H 2019 on Wednesday, July 31.
The report is to be released until 4:00 pm MSK, the meeting with analysts / presentation is scheduled 4:30 pm MSK.
Those willing to take remote participation are welcome to join the event by phone:
Dial-in numbers: +7 495 258 4004, +7 495 787 4616
Pin code: 5120603
Despite of the electricity output contraction in 2019, we expect strong results, basically due to the day-ahead electricity price increase y-o-y.
The output volume declined 2.3% in 1H 2019, yet the average price of electricity grew by 13.5%. The estimate in Ural region, where the company’s large stations – Reftinskaya and Sredneuralskaya – are located, grew up to 19.5% YoY.
Resulting from that, we expect 1H 2019 EBITDA to rise by 13.1% YoY and the net profit – by 31.8%.
Despite the significant rise of estimates, we assume that quotes are to perform a close-to-zero growth or loss as the company is going through a serious transformation of business: it sells Reftinskaya GRES and constructs Wind Parks.
We outline that investors will focus on the conference call, which will be conducted in the form of a meeting with analysts in the company’s office.
Management is to comment on asset sale and is likely to present an update of the core estimates for 2019 FY.
Earlier, the company’s management presented an very conservative forecast on the 2019 net profit (RUB 6.7 bn), therefore, we assume the estimate would be outperformed. We expect the 2019 net profit to be at RUB 8.6 bn and a remarkable 15.9% dividend yield.
Despite the given positive short-term forecasts, we observe a risk of sell-off in the Enel Russia stock in case the management makes it clear in course of the meeting with analysts that there will be no special dividends paid from Reftinskaya GRES sale. According to our model, the company will not have opportunities for that.